I’m trying to summarize/paraphrase our current situation in the U.S. for personal planning purposes. Please comment if needed on any areas I’m misrepresenting.
1. The money pump has been running for decades and shows no signs of slowing.
2. Elite overproduction is advanced, also shows no signs of slowing, and has already resulted in a quiet overthrow of the federal government and many state governments.
3. Popular immiseration is deeply established, reflected in finances, health, and social mobility.
4. There are no quick fixes.
5. U.S. society is unstable, consistently becoming more unstable/undemocratic, and there are currently no significant corrective forces at work.
6. The U.S. can expected to remain unstable for the next several years, possibly 20+ years.
7. Best case scenario is a U.S. version of the U.K. ‘Troubles’.
8. Less favorable but plausible scenarios include various temperatures of cold to hot civil war, up to Spanish Civil War levels.
Ed, I think that your assessment is way too negative overall - and I hope that Peter agrees with me. It appears that you are taking Peter's theory nearly to an extreme worst case conclusion, which is unlikely to happen. I would suggest that you broaden your reading to include other valuable analysts (such as Rational Optimists Society and George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures) and quit listening to traditional network news and print.
I fully realize that the future is uncertain and I generally agree with Peter's theory that we are in a crisis state - but things are now changing for the better - and I highly doubt that we will end up in Britain's or Europe's mess anytime in this century.
Dr. Turchin -- Thanks for allowing us to ask questions. I would appreciate if you could let us know your (or your colleagues') upcoming speaking schedule. My wife & I travel frequently and it would be great to catch one of your talks in person. Thank you. Paul McVinney, Winchester, Va.
Many thanks for the opportunity to pick your brain!
My question:
You’ve suggested in a number of your pieces that great empires often arise as a result of the cultural unity and related disciplines that emerge from existing at a meta-ethnic frontier. This makes perfect sense.
Is it also possible that these emerging civilizations benefit from the differentiated genetic contribution (from each of the opposing ethnicities) that also might exist at these frontiers? A hybrid ethnicity of increased robustness, sharpened by the extreme hardship and accelerated evolutionary pressures that likely exist in these environments?
Would the MAGA and Democratic leadership be considered elite and counter-elite? Or since the transfer of power has been peaceful, would they be considered the same elite?
I found this article in American Affairs by Phillip Pilkington very interesting. Do you think his conclusions relate to your research in any way? thanks!
Thanks for the option to query your expertise! I'm curious about how to define the beginning of the current era of popular immiseration in the US. I've read your book End Tiimes but don't recall if it was mentioned. Some say that we might be reaching the end of that cycle if you consider the effect of Reagan's policies in the 80's and particularly the decline of unions coupled with a global form of financialized capitalism.
I read Matt Stoller's Substck Big https://www.thebignewsletter.com/ which covers antitrust. From him I've learned that my life has coincided with the "Bork" era of the US elite deciding to disregard antitrust law, which has led to concentrated power in business and therefore society. We never would have gotten such powerful tech companies without this, and without the elite decision making that said digital is different and tech is exempt from liability and, in the beginning, taxes (think Amazon in the first years of "e-commerce"). Would appreciate you putting that in context of cliodynamics and the creation of the wealth pump. Thanks!
Thanks for all these questions! Answers are forthcoming in the next post later this week.
I’m trying to summarize/paraphrase our current situation in the U.S. for personal planning purposes. Please comment if needed on any areas I’m misrepresenting.
1. The money pump has been running for decades and shows no signs of slowing.
2. Elite overproduction is advanced, also shows no signs of slowing, and has already resulted in a quiet overthrow of the federal government and many state governments.
3. Popular immiseration is deeply established, reflected in finances, health, and social mobility.
4. There are no quick fixes.
5. U.S. society is unstable, consistently becoming more unstable/undemocratic, and there are currently no significant corrective forces at work.
6. The U.S. can expected to remain unstable for the next several years, possibly 20+ years.
7. Best case scenario is a U.S. version of the U.K. ‘Troubles’.
8. Less favorable but plausible scenarios include various temperatures of cold to hot civil war, up to Spanish Civil War levels.
Ed, I think that your assessment is way too negative overall - and I hope that Peter agrees with me. It appears that you are taking Peter's theory nearly to an extreme worst case conclusion, which is unlikely to happen. I would suggest that you broaden your reading to include other valuable analysts (such as Rational Optimists Society and George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures) and quit listening to traditional network news and print.
I fully realize that the future is uncertain and I generally agree with Peter's theory that we are in a crisis state - but things are now changing for the better - and I highly doubt that we will end up in Britain's or Europe's mess anytime in this century.
How are things changing for the better?
Peter’s comments.
https://open.substack.com/pub/peterturchin/p/subscriber-mailbag-i?r=2wjuw3&utm_medium=ios
What do you think of Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a way to reverse the current wealth pump flow?
Dr. Turchin -- Thanks for allowing us to ask questions. I would appreciate if you could let us know your (or your colleagues') upcoming speaking schedule. My wife & I travel frequently and it would be great to catch one of your talks in person. Thank you. Paul McVinney, Winchester, Va.
Many thanks for the opportunity to pick your brain!
My question:
You’ve suggested in a number of your pieces that great empires often arise as a result of the cultural unity and related disciplines that emerge from existing at a meta-ethnic frontier. This makes perfect sense.
Is it also possible that these emerging civilizations benefit from the differentiated genetic contribution (from each of the opposing ethnicities) that also might exist at these frontiers? A hybrid ethnicity of increased robustness, sharpened by the extreme hardship and accelerated evolutionary pressures that likely exist in these environments?
Would the MAGA and Democratic leadership be considered elite and counter-elite? Or since the transfer of power has been peaceful, would they be considered the same elite?
I found this article in American Affairs by Phillip Pilkington very interesting. Do you think his conclusions relate to your research in any way? thanks!
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2025/05/the-limits-of-consumption-deepening-why-consuming-more-makes-us-poorer/
Thanks for the option to query your expertise! I'm curious about how to define the beginning of the current era of popular immiseration in the US. I've read your book End Tiimes but don't recall if it was mentioned. Some say that we might be reaching the end of that cycle if you consider the effect of Reagan's policies in the 80's and particularly the decline of unions coupled with a global form of financialized capitalism.
I read Matt Stoller's Substck Big https://www.thebignewsletter.com/ which covers antitrust. From him I've learned that my life has coincided with the "Bork" era of the US elite deciding to disregard antitrust law, which has led to concentrated power in business and therefore society. We never would have gotten such powerful tech companies without this, and without the elite decision making that said digital is different and tech is exempt from liability and, in the beginning, taxes (think Amazon in the first years of "e-commerce"). Would appreciate you putting that in context of cliodynamics and the creation of the wealth pump. Thanks!
Does cliodynamics supports scenario building?
Yes, multipath forecasting, A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting
of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience, 2018 and again in 2020.