It’s hard to read Dune without suspecting that Frank Herbert was engaging Ibn Khaldun directly, rather than converging on similar ideas by coincidence. The parallels are numerous and structural, not superficial. I’m curious whether Herbert ever explicitly acknowledged this influence.
What’s especially striking is how deeply Herbert understands the dynamic. Early in Dune, Leto Atreides recognizes the origins of the Sardaukar on Salusa Secundus (a horrendous prison planet mislabelled by all subsequent TV and film adaptations) and accepts the poisoned chalice of Arrakis to replicate that formative pressure through the Fremen. His enemies assume he has fallen for the “honey trap” of spice wealth. He has not. He is playing a different game entirely.
Leto understands that Caladan cannot produce the military power he needs, and that refusal of the Emperor’s offer still leads to destruction. This is the key point: declining the trap does not restore equilibrium. He recognizes that he is already at war and on his way to losing before any shots are fired. Very Sun Tzu.
That recognition is both admirable and tragic; reminiscent of Winston Churchill enduring years of accusations of warmongering before history caught up. This is leadership under extreme constraint: seeing the full board, recognizing that all options are bad, and choosing the one that preserves a narrow path to survival.
Leto understands how the Emperor truly controls the Imperium (through the Sardaukar) and concludes that an alliance with the Fremen is worth the risk precisely because not taking that risk guarantees defeat.
It’s been many years since I read the later books, and I never finished God Emperor, so I’m not sure how explicitly Herbert later foregrounds this logic. But it’s already fully present in Dune itself.
One final note, on a lighter front: the Sardaukar were never meant to look like Parisian fashion victims. Thank God for Denis Villeneuve.
I asked ChatGPT and here's its conclusion: "If Herbert had read Ibn Khaldun, he almost certainly would have said so—he loved naming sources. The silence suggests parallel thinking rather than direct borrowing. But if you wanted a single novelist who accidentally reinvented Ibn Khaldun for the 20th century, Frank Herbert would be a very good candidate." This seems quite plausible to me. It also provided a lot of other useful info, check with it if interested.
I only read the first three volumes, tried reading the fourth and decided that the series degenerated (following Ibn Khaldun's rule!).
Excellent post! This made me think about monogamous versus harem style animal societies and whether similar dynamics are at play there. For example, the silverback male gorilla "rules" over a harem of females and their offspring (including his sons), until he is overthrown. In chimpanzee societies, a coalition of males "rule" until they are overthrown. What are the dynamics of leadership turnover in these differently structured ape societies, and do they also support the cliodynamics that are observed in humans (obviously without the written history of "clio"). And there's evidence that individuals within family lines can even inherit "wealth" of a sort (good breeding grounds, nests, accumulated cultural artefacts, etc.), creating culturally heritable differences in privilege -- See: Smith, J. E., Natterson-Horowitz, B., & Alfaro, M. E. (2022). The nature of privilege: intergenerational wealth in animal societies. Behavioral Ecology, 33(1), 1-6.
South Korea's fertility rate and suicide rate r the results of stagflation phase? or we r in crisis phase. and as we can see at president Yoon's coup and seoul western district court riot, just like professor Turchin said about Trump and January 6 United States Capitol attack, it seems like a disintegrative phase. elites r overcompeting, real wage is not good i guess. but koreans tends to express violence not outside but more inside to individual themselves so we dont punch ppl but kill ourself? we should understand this as cliodynamics? not neoliberalism, capitalism? lack of beliefs system that can make cooperation among us has been destroyed bc of Japanese Colonialzation period and Korean war and Western order come in. our traditions got destoryed, community got destroyed. that can be also related w assabiyah no? or should we think this in neuroscience point of view. Allostasis or Active Inference.
Although not always followed, this was the general rule of succession. And it lengthened the cycle -- the Ottoman Cycles were closer to the rulers in Europe, compared to Maghreb.
See my response to Nick. But while it helped at the highest level (ruler) it still resulted in overproduction at the level of "gentry" (landed elites). However, the Ottomans used another way to control the gentry: they recruited bureaucrats by devshirme.
Thanks, great stuff as usual. As for your interest in asabiya/solidarity/cooperation, I would imagine you might find research about trust very fruitful for further thought (if you haven't looked into it already). I've written about it quite a bit: I believe it offers a more granular view on the origins of asabiya with some highly valuable implications.
Interesting. A few observations.
It’s hard to read Dune without suspecting that Frank Herbert was engaging Ibn Khaldun directly, rather than converging on similar ideas by coincidence. The parallels are numerous and structural, not superficial. I’m curious whether Herbert ever explicitly acknowledged this influence.
What’s especially striking is how deeply Herbert understands the dynamic. Early in Dune, Leto Atreides recognizes the origins of the Sardaukar on Salusa Secundus (a horrendous prison planet mislabelled by all subsequent TV and film adaptations) and accepts the poisoned chalice of Arrakis to replicate that formative pressure through the Fremen. His enemies assume he has fallen for the “honey trap” of spice wealth. He has not. He is playing a different game entirely.
Leto understands that Caladan cannot produce the military power he needs, and that refusal of the Emperor’s offer still leads to destruction. This is the key point: declining the trap does not restore equilibrium. He recognizes that he is already at war and on his way to losing before any shots are fired. Very Sun Tzu.
That recognition is both admirable and tragic; reminiscent of Winston Churchill enduring years of accusations of warmongering before history caught up. This is leadership under extreme constraint: seeing the full board, recognizing that all options are bad, and choosing the one that preserves a narrow path to survival.
Leto understands how the Emperor truly controls the Imperium (through the Sardaukar) and concludes that an alliance with the Fremen is worth the risk precisely because not taking that risk guarantees defeat.
It’s been many years since I read the later books, and I never finished God Emperor, so I’m not sure how explicitly Herbert later foregrounds this logic. But it’s already fully present in Dune itself.
One final note, on a lighter front: the Sardaukar were never meant to look like Parisian fashion victims. Thank God for Denis Villeneuve.
I asked ChatGPT and here's its conclusion: "If Herbert had read Ibn Khaldun, he almost certainly would have said so—he loved naming sources. The silence suggests parallel thinking rather than direct borrowing. But if you wanted a single novelist who accidentally reinvented Ibn Khaldun for the 20th century, Frank Herbert would be a very good candidate." This seems quite plausible to me. It also provided a lot of other useful info, check with it if interested.
I only read the first three volumes, tried reading the fourth and decided that the series degenerated (following Ibn Khaldun's rule!).
Yes. “God Emperor” was God Awful. I gave up there.
Excellent post! This made me think about monogamous versus harem style animal societies and whether similar dynamics are at play there. For example, the silverback male gorilla "rules" over a harem of females and their offspring (including his sons), until he is overthrown. In chimpanzee societies, a coalition of males "rule" until they are overthrown. What are the dynamics of leadership turnover in these differently structured ape societies, and do they also support the cliodynamics that are observed in humans (obviously without the written history of "clio"). And there's evidence that individuals within family lines can even inherit "wealth" of a sort (good breeding grounds, nests, accumulated cultural artefacts, etc.), creating culturally heritable differences in privilege -- See: Smith, J. E., Natterson-Horowitz, B., & Alfaro, M. E. (2022). The nature of privilege: intergenerational wealth in animal societies. Behavioral Ecology, 33(1), 1-6.
Interesting parallels. But in animal societies you won't have the "four generations" rule, because every first generation gets overthrown.
South Korea's fertility rate and suicide rate r the results of stagflation phase? or we r in crisis phase. and as we can see at president Yoon's coup and seoul western district court riot, just like professor Turchin said about Trump and January 6 United States Capitol attack, it seems like a disintegrative phase. elites r overcompeting, real wage is not good i guess. but koreans tends to express violence not outside but more inside to individual themselves so we dont punch ppl but kill ourself? we should understand this as cliodynamics? not neoliberalism, capitalism? lack of beliefs system that can make cooperation among us has been destroyed bc of Japanese Colonialzation period and Korean war and Western order come in. our traditions got destoryed, community got destroyed. that can be also related w assabiyah no? or should we think this in neuroscience point of view. Allostasis or Active Inference.
I understand that the Ottoman Sultans on gaining the throne would usually
and traditionally kill their brothers. There was a Fatwa that this was a duty
as it enhanced the stability of the state. Maybe this was both brutal and smart as
it certainly reduced elite overproduction.
Although not always followed, this was the general rule of succession. And it lengthened the cycle -- the Ottoman Cycles were closer to the rulers in Europe, compared to Maghreb.
It is worth noting the Ottoman practice of regal fraticide was one solution to the problem of elite overproduction.
See my response to Nick. But while it helped at the highest level (ruler) it still resulted in overproduction at the level of "gentry" (landed elites). However, the Ottomans used another way to control the gentry: they recruited bureaucrats by devshirme.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devshirme
Overall, Ottoman innovations are an interesting practical application of cliodynamic thinking.
Thanks, great stuff as usual. As for your interest in asabiya/solidarity/cooperation, I would imagine you might find research about trust very fruitful for further thought (if you haven't looked into it already). I've written about it quite a bit: I believe it offers a more granular view on the origins of asabiya with some highly valuable implications.