I don't know who Prof. Turchin thinks the left is, but he isn't telling the truth when he says the left is celebrating Kirk's death. There are no significant numbers of people and no---I repeat, no---significant people celebrating Kirk's death. And no practicing politicians I know of have passed on the opportunity to denounce violence. What Prof. Turchin has done here is uncritically endorse right wing canards. implicitly approving the extremely right wing campaign to turn Kirk into the modern equivalent of Horst Wessel, or at least John Birch.
I'm afraid I do automatically accept opinion polls, especially on controversial topics. It is far too easy to rig the questions or selectively report the results. The reactionary program is to claim Kirk's death is being celebrated, the conservative Daily Caller obliges. I'm not altogether sure I understand what Cloud Research is, but it seems like something that is very open to manipulation, maybe as a feature rather than a bug.
On the other hand, there really was a certain degree of celebration by ordinary people (still not by officials and politicians as I recall) of the shooter Luigi Mangione. That was what celebration by a part of the population looked like. And this simply is not what the reaction to the Kirk shooting looked like. Part of the reason of course is that it's not even clear that most people even knew who Kirk was.
But if you insist on taking polls at face value, it is the young people who probably actually did know Kirk who loathed him the most. That would be due to his viciously reactionary ideology, which aimed at intimidating college professors by the way. Endorsing the Kirk hagiography is by way of endorsing his ideology and his efforts to purge the campuses.
It is beyond me how you cannot agree with Dr Turchin's statement "One side, the so-called “left,” is celebrating, while the other, the “right”, is mourning. "
As well noted below - leave your comfortable echo chambers....
A couple of points that I think Professor Turchin gets wrong in this short article.
First, he downplays the importance of the first type of power: coercion. In the contemporary US, the level of cooperation and consent is so high that it’s easy for a casual observer to overestimate the role of economic, administrative, or ideological power. But in moments of real crisis the establishment quickly drops the fictions of persuasion, rational argument, or laissez-faire norms, and resorts to open force and suppression of liberties to restore “peace.” The brutal crackdowns on even completely non-violent protest movements, or the swift neutralization of militias, should make clear that coercion is far from marginal. When the system feels threatened, force is decisive.
Second (and reinforcing the first point), Joe Rogan and Elon Musk are poor examples of persuasion or economic power standing in opposition to establishment power. Both are deeply aligned with it: Musk through his ties to the military-industrial complex, Rogan by promoting the consumerist-individualist ethos that underpins the economy. Their supposed “anti-establishment” stance exists only on narrow, superficial grounds.
For that reason, the “Age of Discord” we inhabit is primarily an age of idle anxieties playing out through virtual and quickly forgotten blowups in cyberspace. The state’s infrastructure remains untouched. The political-economic reality is one of remarkable continuity and conservatism, with crises tending not to destabilize but to reinforce and harden the system.
Shabby Toby is another member of 'The Left' who, like Steven, has his head up his alibrary's. up on the tower farting out to the other libtards. Smells bad up there, man.
Thank you Mark, my Substack is fairly new and I believe you are my first official hater. They should include a badge for this achievement in the next UX update!
Can I ask what tipped you off that I was a member of 'The Left'? Was it my celebration of the "aristos" of the warrior-princes of Classical Greece and Medieval Christendom; or my exploration of Wagner's allegory of the fall of heroes and gods fulfilled by modernity's Faustian Bargain in "Der Ring des Nibelungen" (both in my latest article)? Or perhaps my critical essay on technocratic social sciences, and their tendency to flatten human excellence to fit the mold of the "bugman"? Something in my comment above?
In any case, thank you for the enlightening remark, I guess 'The Left' really is a big tent after all.
My initial comment was addressed to the substance of your article in complete seriousness with no ill will implied, apologies if it read like that in any way. Mark got a little trollish and my reply to him was meant in good fun. Probably best I just ignore him going forward.
LOL, you make me laugh, but seriously, this is just another example that proves Peter's point about the clash that is building between two opposing camps. Your camp calls me a "Hater" because I don't agree with your pseudo intellectual SHIT and the fact that you are wrongfully opposing Peter's spot on analysis. My camp would call me a "Truthteller" and your camp "Haters" or something worse. So this direct opposition and likely coming conflict is exactly what Peter is talking about and proves his point perfectly. And you can go on spouting your nonsense while the battle rages and you will just end up another victim of the outcome.
I’d love to experience your keynote and explore Transalvania, but suspect this won't be possible for most here - Will there be a stream or recording for those who can’t attend?
I’ve been thinking lately that what us messy humans really needs is a roadmap for navigating into this new era, one grounded in the data and lessons cliodynamics has uncovered about how a post-industrial society can be structured to minimise corruption, elite overproduction and immiseration.
Navigating End Times feels like a perfect title for such a book, perhaps something to keep in mind for the future?
Ok, here is where I'm struggling to not label the "enemy".
We are seeing rights stripped away, and seeing literal Nazis and outspoken fascists. Are these people not the enemy? While many people are woefully ignorant of national politics, is it not fair to label the ones pushing to eradicate certain humans not as enemies?
Please help me out here! I loved your book and hate the fact that its so far been accurate.
Tbs, not the whole world is living in the Age of Dischord. It certainly doesn't seem like China is (hasn't it entered an integrative phase of the cycle with Deng?)
Perhaps Prof Turchin could tell us more about the places that are "on the rise"?
The poll here on which country to do a structural-demographic analysis next decisively voted for China. So we are in the process of collecting data. Expect some posts in the next one-two months.
Sorry, Olga, but China is no longer on the rise. It was for many years, but recent events have reversed that and they are likely now in worse crisis than most other countries. They have major problems, for sure.
Steven, you are either very naive or just plain lying and YOU are definitely part of 'The Left'. This group is, or has been, quite prominent in the US lately and has the characteristics of being unable to think for themselves and unable to face reality. They live in some sort of tower where they just tell each other fairy tales and look down on the real people below. Well, us real people are sick of that shit and we are coming for you now. This is exactly what Peter is talking about and he is 💯 percent right!
I don't know who Prof. Turchin thinks the left is, but he isn't telling the truth when he says the left is celebrating Kirk's death. There are no significant numbers of people and no---I repeat, no---significant people celebrating Kirk's death. And no practicing politicians I know of have passed on the opportunity to denounce violence. What Prof. Turchin has done here is uncritically endorse right wing canards. implicitly approving the extremely right wing campaign to turn Kirk into the modern equivalent of Horst Wessel, or at least John Birch.
Quarter Of Young Voters Think America ‘Better Off’ After Kirk Assassination: Poll
https://dailycaller.com/2025/09/15/quarter-of-young-voters-think-america-better-off-after-kirk-assassination-poll/
22% of Americans Under 30 Say Killing Charlie Kirk Was Justified
https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/justifying-murder/
I'm afraid I do automatically accept opinion polls, especially on controversial topics. It is far too easy to rig the questions or selectively report the results. The reactionary program is to claim Kirk's death is being celebrated, the conservative Daily Caller obliges. I'm not altogether sure I understand what Cloud Research is, but it seems like something that is very open to manipulation, maybe as a feature rather than a bug.
On the other hand, there really was a certain degree of celebration by ordinary people (still not by officials and politicians as I recall) of the shooter Luigi Mangione. That was what celebration by a part of the population looked like. And this simply is not what the reaction to the Kirk shooting looked like. Part of the reason of course is that it's not even clear that most people even knew who Kirk was.
But if you insist on taking polls at face value, it is the young people who probably actually did know Kirk who loathed him the most. That would be due to his viciously reactionary ideology, which aimed at intimidating college professors by the way. Endorsing the Kirk hagiography is by way of endorsing his ideology and his efforts to purge the campuses.
you need to leave your comfortable “echo chambers” and make a real effort to learn the point of view of those whom you perceive as “the enemy.”
Physician heal thyself.
It is beyond me how you cannot agree with Dr Turchin's statement "One side, the so-called “left,” is celebrating, while the other, the “right”, is mourning. "
As well noted below - leave your comfortable echo chambers....
More like Ernst vom Rath.
Great, thanks.
Any transcript, audio/video available ?
A couple of points that I think Professor Turchin gets wrong in this short article.
First, he downplays the importance of the first type of power: coercion. In the contemporary US, the level of cooperation and consent is so high that it’s easy for a casual observer to overestimate the role of economic, administrative, or ideological power. But in moments of real crisis the establishment quickly drops the fictions of persuasion, rational argument, or laissez-faire norms, and resorts to open force and suppression of liberties to restore “peace.” The brutal crackdowns on even completely non-violent protest movements, or the swift neutralization of militias, should make clear that coercion is far from marginal. When the system feels threatened, force is decisive.
Second (and reinforcing the first point), Joe Rogan and Elon Musk are poor examples of persuasion or economic power standing in opposition to establishment power. Both are deeply aligned with it: Musk through his ties to the military-industrial complex, Rogan by promoting the consumerist-individualist ethos that underpins the economy. Their supposed “anti-establishment” stance exists only on narrow, superficial grounds.
For that reason, the “Age of Discord” we inhabit is primarily an age of idle anxieties playing out through virtual and quickly forgotten blowups in cyberspace. The state’s infrastructure remains untouched. The political-economic reality is one of remarkable continuity and conservatism, with crises tending not to destabilize but to reinforce and harden the system.
Shabby Toby is another member of 'The Left' who, like Steven, has his head up his alibrary's. up on the tower farting out to the other libtards. Smells bad up there, man.
Thank you Mark, my Substack is fairly new and I believe you are my first official hater. They should include a badge for this achievement in the next UX update!
Can I ask what tipped you off that I was a member of 'The Left'? Was it my celebration of the "aristos" of the warrior-princes of Classical Greece and Medieval Christendom; or my exploration of Wagner's allegory of the fall of heroes and gods fulfilled by modernity's Faustian Bargain in "Der Ring des Nibelungen" (both in my latest article)? Or perhaps my critical essay on technocratic social sciences, and their tendency to flatten human excellence to fit the mold of the "bugman"? Something in my comment above?
In any case, thank you for the enlightening remark, I guess 'The Left' really is a big tent after all.
Mark and Toby: please desist, or I'll have to ban you both. Address substantive issues, please no ad hominem attacks.
My initial comment was addressed to the substance of your article in complete seriousness with no ill will implied, apologies if it read like that in any way. Mark got a little trollish and my reply to him was meant in good fun. Probably best I just ignore him going forward.
LOL, you make me laugh, but seriously, this is just another example that proves Peter's point about the clash that is building between two opposing camps. Your camp calls me a "Hater" because I don't agree with your pseudo intellectual SHIT and the fact that you are wrongfully opposing Peter's spot on analysis. My camp would call me a "Truthteller" and your camp "Haters" or something worse. So this direct opposition and likely coming conflict is exactly what Peter is talking about and proves his point perfectly. And you can go on spouting your nonsense while the battle rages and you will just end up another victim of the outcome.
We live in the age of nuclear weapons and environmental collapse, so it's totally possible that we'll not survive this round.
I’d love to experience your keynote and explore Transalvania, but suspect this won't be possible for most here - Will there be a stream or recording for those who can’t attend?
I’ve been thinking lately that what us messy humans really needs is a roadmap for navigating into this new era, one grounded in the data and lessons cliodynamics has uncovered about how a post-industrial society can be structured to minimise corruption, elite overproduction and immiseration.
Navigating End Times feels like a perfect title for such a book, perhaps something to keep in mind for the future?
I'm interested in this also, Peter, and there are likely many more of us too.
I just realized I don't have a page on my website dedicated to podcasts that I give. I'll have one up in a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, here is on:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk9bs0F_oIU
beautiful piece. It reminds me of the saying "if you want peace, you must talk to your adversaries not your friends".
Theres hope, yet.
Ok, here is where I'm struggling to not label the "enemy".
We are seeing rights stripped away, and seeing literal Nazis and outspoken fascists. Are these people not the enemy? While many people are woefully ignorant of national politics, is it not fair to label the ones pushing to eradicate certain humans not as enemies?
Please help me out here! I loved your book and hate the fact that its so far been accurate.
Tbs, not the whole world is living in the Age of Dischord. It certainly doesn't seem like China is (hasn't it entered an integrative phase of the cycle with Deng?)
Perhaps Prof Turchin could tell us more about the places that are "on the rise"?
The poll here on which country to do a structural-demographic analysis next decisively voted for China. So we are in the process of collecting data. Expect some posts in the next one-two months.
Sorry, Olga, but China is no longer on the rise. It was for many years, but recent events have reversed that and they are likely now in worse crisis than most other countries. They have major problems, for sure.
Perhaps, but let's see what Dr Turchin's data says - being "no longer on the rise" and entering an age of discord are two different things
Ok, that's fair.
Thanks.
Steven, you are either very naive or just plain lying and YOU are definitely part of 'The Left'. This group is, or has been, quite prominent in the US lately and has the characteristics of being unable to think for themselves and unable to face reality. They live in some sort of tower where they just tell each other fairy tales and look down on the real people below. Well, us real people are sick of that shit and we are coming for you now. This is exactly what Peter is talking about and he is 💯 percent right!
You and your type just don't have a clue.
Yes, I think Prof. Turchin is making it very clear he has enlisted on your side.