I wonder whether the population variance could be fitted to outbreaks of the Black Plague? that assumes that the plague extended that far North, of course....
Population history of Russia during this period is a good illustration if several cliodynamic principles. The first population decline, starting in the late 12th century, was a result of internal warfare during the disintegration of Kievan Rus. The precipitous fall after 1240 was due to the devastating Mongol conquest. Actually, Novgorod was somewhat insulated from both these influences, and population decline there was mild, compared to more exposed areas like Kiev or Ryazan, which essentially ceased to exist.
The second decline was due to the next secular disintegrative period -- multi-decade civil wars in northern Russia during the first half of the 15th century.
The Black Death got to Russia after 1350 but had no effect because the population was already at a low level. The Plague returned in the early 1400s as part of the general disintegrative period. Thus, the main factor in both declines was violence, not disease.
I suppose that population's decline in Novgorod after 1240 was due to some unknown for us reasons. Mongols did not came to city, so instead the moving out it should be regarded as safe harbor and got influx of population! Probably there were some troubles - earthquakes or bad weather and famine as a sequence, for example. It's interesting that Black Plague had quite soft influence in 1350th - just a step on the figure. In Europe some countries had lost 90% of population at the same time. It looks as horrible medieval COVID (also originated from China by the way)
I would love your thoughts on this: as technology gets more advanced , artifacts generally get more delicate, and thus less likely to survive the sands of time. What is left for us to discover about a civilization centuries afterward are the usually only the most durable artifacts, which are often the most primitive (so large blocks of stone of inscriptions as opposed to plain paper or even gasp a blackberry device).
So it seems to me our impression of the past will always be biased toward the primitive instead of the advanced. And when you do get descriptions of advanced technologies (my brother in law told me the Baghavad Gita mentions flying machines) they seem more fanciful instead of real, because we have no hard evidence.
While many artefacts become more fragile (e.g. cell phone versus a stone axe), this is well compensated by the monumental structures needed to produce them. Just think of the mines, metal processing, and artefact producing factories today -- if the civilization collapses, these traces will endure literally for millions of years to be found by future xeno-archaeologists.
I was telling your insight to my daughter just now and it made me wonder: have we found any evidence of these kinds of factories anywhere? Google is pessimistic (https://share.google/aimode/OcEjidPLAOdzmLRZS).
Peter, a fascinating look at proxies in Novgorod. If birchbark and leather shoes were the signals of 14th-century complexity, what will be the 'archaeological proxy' of the Anthropological Digestion we see today in the Maghreb?
You are currently in Marrakesh—at the very foot of the demographic volcano I analyze in my work. While the 'Sapiens' model in the West is aerating and decomposing (like the post-1500 Novgorod layers), the Global South is producing a 'biological signal' so loud it overrides any secular cycle.
I argue that we aren't just in a population cycle, but in a Reverse Axial Age. The 'literacy' you track in Novgorod is being replaced by 'algorithmic delegation.' Would cliodynamics recognize a civilization that still generates 'rubbish' (biomass) but has lost its 'Subject' (sovereignty)?
Safe travels in Morocco—the frontier of the New Great Migration
US attacked Venezuela bc plutocrats needs smth? what do they need? is it US elites' attempt to make the hot air of inequality, popular immiseration, elite overproduction, asabiya risk go outside their states? but how can it be possible to perform such operation if the asabiya was getting loosen. isnt that means US empire's asabiya is great?
i served the military as KATUSA w US Army. i thought the way Korea make youtha to cooperate was violent. there was no pride, no philosophical narratives, but onky storyline like we go to military bc the government forces us, bc or else we gotta go to jail, we r the slaves. our time spending in the military is a waste. females dont go to the service. this is unfair. so we need to make youths obey without questioning. we did many physical, psychilogical violence to make the obedience, very strict rules and courtsey, and it caused many military traumas(not even war PTSD but we call military service PTSD) or even suicide. and it become social issues, and after MZ generation and smartphone now the culture r shifting but the essence looks same. so i feel koreans r not cooperating for smth like catholic god or values like freedom but to earn money, to get socially accepted, to not go to jail, to not die. smth just more for daily life. on the other hand, US soldiers were seems like have free rules and courtsey, no physical or paychological violence, and they train actually for war. all the things r for more physical, strategic, cooperational training. instead korean army focuses on making social hierarchy not the training itself. there was no threat, no blaming yet US army worked harder, make better scores than Koreans. you can see how jacked US slodiers r and koreans r skinny. but i could see there were mostly immigrants who wanna get green card and college fee from korea, veitnam, ethiopia, russia, latin america, mostly all kinds of countries in central america and mexico. so they were there also for money. asabiya doesnt affects deeply into popular mind? it's also just for elites? what's the difference between american and korean asabiya to make ppl cooperate?
what happening in Iran is also fit to cliodynamics mechanism rn? does seshat website shows Years of max-
imum urban youth growth rates / Urban youth growth rates(% in five years) in those years / Period of par-
ticularly high structural-demographic risks of political destabilization / Structural-demographic risk level country by country? can't find where to search on the website. was Iran's risk level high? will Turkiye's risk level be okay? someone I love will go there this summer. I'm worried. ppl r dying. I feel fear and han(恨) bc I value ppl's life and peace. anyone who hear mom's cry and scream in front of her dead son will feel the same. i wish i can understand the world well too, so I can gain the ability to make a new prediction model for better resolution and cooperation. I read A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?, Korotayev, Professor Turchin mentioned on his book, and there was about my country's 1980 Gwangju(May 18 Democratic Uprising) analysis as one of examples. It was great to see the history not just left/right, democracy/autocracy but demographic-structural view and elites power. I like the work bc I value the attempt to search scientific mechanism not the moral rules. how can I see the factors professor Turchin use to predict the risk level on my country or other country?
not only capturing demographic cycle but social, elites structural cycle! awesome! thank you for sharing great examples of proxies professor Turchin!
I wonder whether the population variance could be fitted to outbreaks of the Black Plague? that assumes that the plague extended that far North, of course....
Population history of Russia during this period is a good illustration if several cliodynamic principles. The first population decline, starting in the late 12th century, was a result of internal warfare during the disintegration of Kievan Rus. The precipitous fall after 1240 was due to the devastating Mongol conquest. Actually, Novgorod was somewhat insulated from both these influences, and population decline there was mild, compared to more exposed areas like Kiev or Ryazan, which essentially ceased to exist.
The second decline was due to the next secular disintegrative period -- multi-decade civil wars in northern Russia during the first half of the 15th century.
The Black Death got to Russia after 1350 but had no effect because the population was already at a low level. The Plague returned in the early 1400s as part of the general disintegrative period. Thus, the main factor in both declines was violence, not disease.
I suppose that population's decline in Novgorod after 1240 was due to some unknown for us reasons. Mongols did not came to city, so instead the moving out it should be regarded as safe harbor and got influx of population! Probably there were some troubles - earthquakes or bad weather and famine as a sequence, for example. It's interesting that Black Plague had quite soft influence in 1350th - just a step on the figure. In Europe some countries had lost 90% of population at the same time. It looks as horrible medieval COVID (also originated from China by the way)
I would love your thoughts on this: as technology gets more advanced , artifacts generally get more delicate, and thus less likely to survive the sands of time. What is left for us to discover about a civilization centuries afterward are the usually only the most durable artifacts, which are often the most primitive (so large blocks of stone of inscriptions as opposed to plain paper or even gasp a blackberry device).
So it seems to me our impression of the past will always be biased toward the primitive instead of the advanced. And when you do get descriptions of advanced technologies (my brother in law told me the Baghavad Gita mentions flying machines) they seem more fanciful instead of real, because we have no hard evidence.
While many artefacts become more fragile (e.g. cell phone versus a stone axe), this is well compensated by the monumental structures needed to produce them. Just think of the mines, metal processing, and artefact producing factories today -- if the civilization collapses, these traces will endure literally for millions of years to be found by future xeno-archaeologists.
I was telling your insight to my daughter just now and it made me wonder: have we found any evidence of these kinds of factories anywhere? Google is pessimistic (https://share.google/aimode/OcEjidPLAOdzmLRZS).
Aha thank you for finding the hole in my logic!
Peter, a fascinating look at proxies in Novgorod. If birchbark and leather shoes were the signals of 14th-century complexity, what will be the 'archaeological proxy' of the Anthropological Digestion we see today in the Maghreb?
You are currently in Marrakesh—at the very foot of the demographic volcano I analyze in my work. While the 'Sapiens' model in the West is aerating and decomposing (like the post-1500 Novgorod layers), the Global South is producing a 'biological signal' so loud it overrides any secular cycle.
I argue that we aren't just in a population cycle, but in a Reverse Axial Age. The 'literacy' you track in Novgorod is being replaced by 'algorithmic delegation.' Would cliodynamics recognize a civilization that still generates 'rubbish' (biomass) but has lost its 'Subject' (sovereignty)?
Safe travels in Morocco—the frontier of the New Great Migration
US attacked Venezuela bc plutocrats needs smth? what do they need? is it US elites' attempt to make the hot air of inequality, popular immiseration, elite overproduction, asabiya risk go outside their states? but how can it be possible to perform such operation if the asabiya was getting loosen. isnt that means US empire's asabiya is great?
i served the military as KATUSA w US Army. i thought the way Korea make youtha to cooperate was violent. there was no pride, no philosophical narratives, but onky storyline like we go to military bc the government forces us, bc or else we gotta go to jail, we r the slaves. our time spending in the military is a waste. females dont go to the service. this is unfair. so we need to make youths obey without questioning. we did many physical, psychilogical violence to make the obedience, very strict rules and courtsey, and it caused many military traumas(not even war PTSD but we call military service PTSD) or even suicide. and it become social issues, and after MZ generation and smartphone now the culture r shifting but the essence looks same. so i feel koreans r not cooperating for smth like catholic god or values like freedom but to earn money, to get socially accepted, to not go to jail, to not die. smth just more for daily life. on the other hand, US soldiers were seems like have free rules and courtsey, no physical or paychological violence, and they train actually for war. all the things r for more physical, strategic, cooperational training. instead korean army focuses on making social hierarchy not the training itself. there was no threat, no blaming yet US army worked harder, make better scores than Koreans. you can see how jacked US slodiers r and koreans r skinny. but i could see there were mostly immigrants who wanna get green card and college fee from korea, veitnam, ethiopia, russia, latin america, mostly all kinds of countries in central america and mexico. so they were there also for money. asabiya doesnt affects deeply into popular mind? it's also just for elites? what's the difference between american and korean asabiya to make ppl cooperate?
what happening in Iran is also fit to cliodynamics mechanism rn? does seshat website shows Years of max-
imum urban youth growth rates / Urban youth growth rates(% in five years) in those years / Period of par-
ticularly high structural-demographic risks of political destabilization / Structural-demographic risk level country by country? can't find where to search on the website. was Iran's risk level high? will Turkiye's risk level be okay? someone I love will go there this summer. I'm worried. ppl r dying. I feel fear and han(恨) bc I value ppl's life and peace. anyone who hear mom's cry and scream in front of her dead son will feel the same. i wish i can understand the world well too, so I can gain the ability to make a new prediction model for better resolution and cooperation. I read A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?, Korotayev, Professor Turchin mentioned on his book, and there was about my country's 1980 Gwangju(May 18 Democratic Uprising) analysis as one of examples. It was great to see the history not just left/right, democracy/autocracy but demographic-structural view and elites power. I like the work bc I value the attempt to search scientific mechanism not the moral rules. how can I see the factors professor Turchin use to predict the risk level on my country or other country?
like 2026 version.