Many thanks to all of you for warm and welcoming comments! And I am pleasantly surprised and very grateful to all of you who signed up for paid subscriptions! I've already found a researcher to hire who will be supported by your generous contributions. Looking forward to making sense in this uncertain world...
Good indeed to see you here, Peter. What I am finding remarkable is how slow the push-back against Trump’s coup is.
But perhaps we should not be surprised, given that the Constitution was designed for a world of high literacy and the speed of horses and stage coaches.
The system did not even evolve to cope with the speed and bypassing of thought introduced by TV in the 1960s.
Steve Bannon talks about “flooding the zone with sh*t” as a means of keeping ahead of push-back.
Bless you, Peter, your colleagues and you whole team. What you are trying to teach us runs so deeply counter to the default story of the supremacy of Modern Techno-Industial (MTI) cultures that we will have great trouble taking your work seriously, let alone digesting it to the point we can respond with relevance.
Will enjoy reading about what you have to say about Trump slashing many departments and if this shows inter elite competition like with what happened in 15th century England
Also I believe you meant to type “George Floyd” not James Floyd
I am looking forward to your further discussions on the America's revolutionary moment. I hope that events don't overtake your discussions. There are a lot of angry people out there, and we could be in for a hot summer.
I'm a big fan. I've published a few papers in Cliodynamics Journal and I have a Substack about the current secular cycle crisis. I see three American cycles rather than two, with the Civil War being a break point. It doesn't show up in the data because of the shift from an agrarian to industrial economy after the Civil War. The first cycle (1780-1870) proceeded as a typical agrarian cycle with PSI rising as you modeled in Ages of Discord. The cycle was resolved by the civil war which saw a rapid decline in elite number due to the lost of 60% of Southern elite wealth due to emancipation. A new cycle begins, but this is not an agrarian one, but an industrial cycle. Elite number rapidly rises and these is a small growth phase.
One of the most popular posts of mine is about your social contagion cycles. I combined political instability measured by sociopolitical instability with cultural instability measured by the rise of radical ideas in religion and moralistic politics. So the rise in rampage murders over the last 10-15 years is combined with a politico-cultural events comprising what is called "The Great Awokening" to define the present uptick in the social contagion model (which predicts the current period is ending).
Peter, reading you from Europe, it seems that a revolution in the USA is ineluctable, unless an intelligent leadership takes over and makes the right adjustments such as the New Deal's , that ain't happening is it ? In your book you mentioned that some European countries are also following the same trend. I hope you will continue to update us on the European, and possibly Russian situation. Please don't loose sight of our fates.
Europe is very much on my mind; furthermore, I plan to hire a researcher to help with collecting data on structural-demographic indicators. SO yes, more to come in the months ahead.
Welcome to Substack — I’m genuinely thrilled to see one of my favourite thinkers set up shop here. I’m not sure you’d call yourself a historian (at least not in the modern, government-sponsored, technocratic sense), but that’s exactly why your work resonates.
Your theory of elite overproduction completely changed how I view society — especially in today’s world, where we’re flooded with over-credentialed “experts” churned out by the university-industrial complex. It’s a system that seems designed less to educate than to manufacture an entitled elite, busy lobbying to create work for themselves.
As you've noted before, this dynamic feeds directly into the instability we’re seeing now.
It’s no coincidence that so many high-profile revolutionaries throughout history held law degrees...
Thrilled to see you here Mr. Turchin. As a 33 year old writer, I am greatly appreciative of older and wiser folks who are willing to share their knowledge on Substack. I've read through some of your blogs. Soon, you'll be flooded with comments and whatnot here, but I may be able to get a question through to you now.
How do us young folk, who are still full of fire and lightning, use the digital revolution that is happening now to create a more beautiful world?
Considering the great role of the "wealth pump" in your theory of revolutions and state breakdowns, I find it somewhat disconcerting how little it is explained. It seems that the working population simply looses its purchase power because they are too many – a kind of Malthusianism that may explain the trajectory of agrarian empires but hardly what happens in an industrial society.
There are however economic historians that have tried to explain it, among others Charles Kindleberger and Bas van Bavel. According to them an upturn starts with new technical solutions linked to emerging markets for consumer articles. However, other markets appear that are not so friendly towards workers – markets in land, money and other factors. Capitalists stop dealing with complicated trade and production activities and settle down as rentiers, renting out property. These kinds of activities don't have room for working people and their purchase power dwindle.
It's a rather well-established fact that Italian renaissance capitalists began to invest in land and money-lending about the same time as the Italians began to be poorer. That Dutch capitalists began to invest in land and moneylending in the 18th century while they also, interestingly enough, began to outsource their productive activities to England. The English did the same and outsourced to America in the 19th century. And the Americans outsourced to China in the late 20th.
Today there are other forms of rentier property, like for example raw materials, patents, copyrights and platforms. Brett Christophers has studied this in UK and found that it is much more profitable than dealing with production or trade, so that is what capitalists prefer.
Of course, these authors have no access to Seshat and are limited to search in a few places and times. But what about the theory – that the wealth pump depends on rentierization? Could it be tested?
Fascinating read! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.
Many thanks to all of you for warm and welcoming comments! And I am pleasantly surprised and very grateful to all of you who signed up for paid subscriptions! I've already found a researcher to hire who will be supported by your generous contributions. Looking forward to making sense in this uncertain world...
Great to have you on Substack, Peter.
Thanks Peter for writing on substack. Hope to see more of your writing here and in your books!
Good indeed to see you here, Peter. What I am finding remarkable is how slow the push-back against Trump’s coup is.
But perhaps we should not be surprised, given that the Constitution was designed for a world of high literacy and the speed of horses and stage coaches.
The system did not even evolve to cope with the speed and bypassing of thought introduced by TV in the 1960s.
Steve Bannon talks about “flooding the zone with sh*t” as a means of keeping ahead of push-back.
So far, it is working really well 😱
Bless you, Peter, your colleagues and you whole team. What you are trying to teach us runs so deeply counter to the default story of the supremacy of Modern Techno-Industial (MTI) cultures that we will have great trouble taking your work seriously, let alone digesting it to the point we can respond with relevance.
Really nice post Mr. Turchin
Will enjoy reading about what you have to say about Trump slashing many departments and if this shows inter elite competition like with what happened in 15th century England
Also I believe you meant to type “George Floyd” not James Floyd
Thanks for catching it! Corrected.
Thanks Peter
I am looking forward to your further discussions on the America's revolutionary moment. I hope that events don't overtake your discussions. There are a lot of angry people out there, and we could be in for a hot summer.
Welcome! Greatly looking forward to reading your stuff here, Peter.
Really looking forward to following your analyses of our predicament.
I'm a big fan. I've published a few papers in Cliodynamics Journal and I have a Substack about the current secular cycle crisis. I see three American cycles rather than two, with the Civil War being a break point. It doesn't show up in the data because of the shift from an agrarian to industrial economy after the Civil War. The first cycle (1780-1870) proceeded as a typical agrarian cycle with PSI rising as you modeled in Ages of Discord. The cycle was resolved by the civil war which saw a rapid decline in elite number due to the lost of 60% of Southern elite wealth due to emancipation. A new cycle begins, but this is not an agrarian one, but an industrial cycle. Elite number rapidly rises and these is a small growth phase.
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/the-american-secular-cycles
One of the most popular posts of mine is about your social contagion cycles. I combined political instability measured by sociopolitical instability with cultural instability measured by the rise of radical ideas in religion and moralistic politics. So the rise in rampage murders over the last 10-15 years is combined with a politico-cultural events comprising what is called "The Great Awokening" to define the present uptick in the social contagion model (which predicts the current period is ending).
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/cycles-of-radicalization
I loved your most recent book, by the way.
Peter, reading you from Europe, it seems that a revolution in the USA is ineluctable, unless an intelligent leadership takes over and makes the right adjustments such as the New Deal's , that ain't happening is it ? In your book you mentioned that some European countries are also following the same trend. I hope you will continue to update us on the European, and possibly Russian situation. Please don't loose sight of our fates.
Europe is very much on my mind; furthermore, I plan to hire a researcher to help with collecting data on structural-demographic indicators. SO yes, more to come in the months ahead.
Please don't *lose sight...
The real pity is that it would be all too easy to blame this on one person, even if he was elected by over 50% of voters.
But the damage he is doing to the US goes much deeper. Even if someone sane is elected in four years, what about eight years?
And keep in mind that Convicted Felon Cat Meat has hinted that he may not be willing to leave office in four years.
No, I'm afraid that the US's reputation it the world has been damaged so severely that it will take decades to recover, if ever.
And we don't really have decades to waste on non-constructive activity, when we should be developing coping strategies.
Hi Peter
Welcome to Substack — I’m genuinely thrilled to see one of my favourite thinkers set up shop here. I’m not sure you’d call yourself a historian (at least not in the modern, government-sponsored, technocratic sense), but that’s exactly why your work resonates.
Your theory of elite overproduction completely changed how I view society — especially in today’s world, where we’re flooded with over-credentialed “experts” churned out by the university-industrial complex. It’s a system that seems designed less to educate than to manufacture an entitled elite, busy lobbying to create work for themselves.
As you've noted before, this dynamic feeds directly into the instability we’re seeing now.
It’s no coincidence that so many high-profile revolutionaries throughout history held law degrees...
Thrilled to see you here Mr. Turchin. As a 33 year old writer, I am greatly appreciative of older and wiser folks who are willing to share their knowledge on Substack. I've read through some of your blogs. Soon, you'll be flooded with comments and whatnot here, but I may be able to get a question through to you now.
How do us young folk, who are still full of fire and lightning, use the digital revolution that is happening now to create a more beautiful world?
Good question -- definitely worth a full-sized post.
Considering the great role of the "wealth pump" in your theory of revolutions and state breakdowns, I find it somewhat disconcerting how little it is explained. It seems that the working population simply looses its purchase power because they are too many – a kind of Malthusianism that may explain the trajectory of agrarian empires but hardly what happens in an industrial society.
There are however economic historians that have tried to explain it, among others Charles Kindleberger and Bas van Bavel. According to them an upturn starts with new technical solutions linked to emerging markets for consumer articles. However, other markets appear that are not so friendly towards workers – markets in land, money and other factors. Capitalists stop dealing with complicated trade and production activities and settle down as rentiers, renting out property. These kinds of activities don't have room for working people and their purchase power dwindle.
It's a rather well-established fact that Italian renaissance capitalists began to invest in land and money-lending about the same time as the Italians began to be poorer. That Dutch capitalists began to invest in land and moneylending in the 18th century while they also, interestingly enough, began to outsource their productive activities to England. The English did the same and outsourced to America in the 19th century. And the Americans outsourced to China in the late 20th.
Today there are other forms of rentier property, like for example raw materials, patents, copyrights and platforms. Brett Christophers has studied this in UK and found that it is much more profitable than dealing with production or trade, so that is what capitalists prefer.
Of course, these authors have no access to Seshat and are limited to search in a few places and times. But what about the theory – that the wealth pump depends on rentierization? Could it be tested?
Fascinating read! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.
check us out:
https://thesecretingredient.substack.com