Sick Man Europe

Imperial Frontiers and Asabiya Black Holes, Europe: 400 BC - 2025

In 1833 Tsar Nicholas I famously called the Ottoman Empire the “Sick Man of Europe.” This characterization was both self-serving (because he aimed to bite off big chunks of the Ottoman Empire) and prophetic (because the Ottomans were in terminal decline by the late nineteenth century, and collapsed in the aftermath of World War I).

Since then this insulting epithet has been applied to quite a number of European states: Great Britain (Britain is fast becoming the sick man of Europe), Germany (The real sick man of Europe), and most recently France (Why France is at risk of becoming the new sick man of Europe). In the aftermath of the 2026 Davos meeting, I think, it’s not a stretch too far to call Europe as a whole (the European Union, to be precise) as the Sick Man of world geopolitics.

This is an amazing reversal of fortunes. The most consequential macrohistorical development of the last millennium was the Rise of Europe. By 1900 European Great Powers dominated the world in all ways — military, economic, technological, and cultural. (I discuss the explanations of the remarkable development in Section 11.7.3 of The Great Holocene Transformation, Why did Europe conquer the world?) And now this. Does Cliodynamics offer any insights on this reversal? In fact, yes, and this is the topic of today’s post.