Revolution Devours Its Children

A Chronicle of Revolution (ACOR5)

Generally speaking, I avoid reacting to events as they occur. After all, the “value added” of this blog is not about the tumult on the surface, but deep currents beneath.

The effect of deeper waters’ characteristics on hurricanes at the surface (Illustration by Natalie Renier, © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

The case in point is the spat between Musk and Trump, which developed literally in the last two days. We don’t know how it will end, and what its long-term consequences will be.

For example, an NYT analysis today points out :

Mr. Musk and Mr. Trump did not have a feud five days ago and might not have a feud five days from now. Until proven otherwise, all of this is theater. Think of it as the political version of professional wrestling. For a few hours, everyone was diverted by the spectacle of a brawl between the world’s richest man and its most powerful person.

Thus, this storm may blow over or result in a lasting split between the two most powerful leaders in the MAGA coalition. Whatever the outcome, it’s still worth discussing, because it’s a surface reflection of deep currents. More than half a year ago, in a Guardian opinion, The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win (Nov. 30, 2024), I wrote:

What’s next? The electoral defeat of the party of the American ruling class on November 5 is just another battle in the on-going revolutionary war. The triumphant counter-elites aim for a wholesale replacement of the ruling elites, or the deep state, as they would have it. But history shows that success in achieving such goals is far from being assured. The ruling elites are well entrenched in the bureaucracy to resist change. Ideological and personal tensions within the winning coalition may result in it breaking apart (as often happened in past revolutions—as they say, revolutions devour their own children).

Francisco Goya, Saturn devouring his son (1820–23)

This phrase, that revolutions devour their children, is sometimes attributed to Danton during the 1794 trial before the Revolutionary Tribunal, in which he was condemned to the guillotine. In fact, it was coined by Jacques Mallet du Pan a year earlier: “A l'exemple de Saturne, la révolution dévore ses enfants” (like Saturn, the Revolution devours its children). But Danton certainly had a good cause to say it, as did later Zinoviev, Kamenev, and other Old Bolsheviks during the Moscow Show Trials of 1936–38.

The logic underlying such developments is easy to understand. Typically, a successful revolution is accomplished by a coalition of diverse counter-elites, who cooperate to overthrow the previous ruling regime. But once they come to power, ideological and personal tensions come to the fore. Further, the problem of elite overproduction still looms tall and must be dealt with, by either exterminating surplus elites or forcing them into downward social mobility. This is the fate of factions that suffer defeat in intra-elite conflicts that typify the early years of a revolution.

Whatever happens next and whichever factions emerge victorious in our revolution, we are virtually guaranteed years of continuing social turbulence and political conflict. This is especially true because the root causes that brought us into the current predicament—immiseration, elite overproduction, and state weakness—haven’t yet been addressed. On the contrary, they only continue gaining strength.