Revolt of the Credentialed Precariat

Mamdani Wins in New York City

The main political news of the week is Zohran Mamdani winning New York City’s mayoral race. Quite a number of people, who’ve read End Times, commented that the Mamdani Moment is a perfect illustration of the “credentialed precariat” (see also this comment on X).

Source

For the background on credentialed precariat, here’s what I wrote in Chapter 4 of End Times: “Guy Standing, who injected the term ‘precariat’ into the public consciousness, sees degree holders as one of the precariat factions. This group

consists of people who go to college, promised by their parents, teachers and politicians that this will grant them a career. They soon realize they were sold a lottery ticket and come out without a future and with plenty of debt. This faction is dangerous in a more positive way. They are unlikely to support populists. But they also reject old conservative or social democratic political parties. Intuitively, they are looking for a new politics of paradise, which they do not see in the old political spectrum or in such bodies as trade unions (Meet the precariat, the new global class fuelling the rise of populism).

History (and CrisisDB) tells us that the credentialed precariat or, in the jargon of Cliodynamics, frustrated elite aspirants, is the most dangerous class for societal stability.” (end of quote)

My main interest is what this development may tell us about the evolution of political parties in America. Ten years ago the political landscape in the US was dominated by two parties: one of the “1 percent” (wealth holders) and one of the “10 percent” (credential-holders). Both parties focused on advancing the interests of the ruling class, while ignoring those of the 90 percent. I am, of course, simplifying a lot here; for a more detailed and nuanced explanation see End Times.

In 2016 Donald Trump channeled growing popular immiseration to begin reformatting the Republicans into a right-wing populist — “MAGA” — party. This process is quite incomplete.

Meanwhile, the Democrats had effectively controlled the left-wing populists in their party, by a combination of suppression (think Bernie Sanders) and cooptation (think AOC). As a result, by 2024 the Democratic Party evolved into the sole party of the ruling elites. Their catastrophic defeat in the 2024 elections resulted in a full-blown revolution, although, thankfully, relatively bloodless (at least, so far). The Democratic Party’s favorability rating among Americans dropped to a record low, the established Democratic elites are in disarray, and that presented an opportunity for the resurgent left wing of the party.

Mamdani’s win in New York City may be a sign that the populists will attempt to take over the Democratic Party in a way similar to what the MAGA movement attempted to do to the Republicans. Or it may not. After all, New York City is far from being a typical American electoral district.

What forces propelled Mamdani’s win over the mainstream candidate, Andrew Cuomo? Here I rely on data from CNN Exit Polls: Election of 2025, based on 4744 respondents. Many pundits commented on the observation that Mamdani enjoyed support among younger voters. Indeed, 78% of the youngest cohort (18-29 years old) voted for him and only 18 for Cuomo, for the Mamdani advantage of 60 points (I will emphasize the differences between percentages voting from this point on).

But to me particularly interesting dimensions are education and wealth.

Let’s first look at credential-holders. Astonishingly, the proportion of people, voting in this election, who had at least “some college” experience is 80%. 31% have earned a Bachelor’s and fully 27% hold an advanced degree, with both groups giving Mamdani an advantage of 19 points (57% for Mamdani, 38% for Cuomo).

To tell the truth, I first didn’t believe these numbers. Such concentration of credentialed individuals is amazing. But according to the NYC government survey in 2023, two years ago the proportion of New Yorkers with a bachelor’s degree or higher was 43%, increasing from 33% in 2010. Of the White adults (25 or older) two-thirds completed college. Talk about degree overproduction…

Next, income. Here the relationship is nonlinear. The poorest (earning less than $30,000 per year) and the richest ($300,000 or more) gave more votes to Cuomo, while those in between preferred Mamdani. Thus, the richest 8%, earning $300k or more, preferred Cuomo by 29 points. The problem for Cuomo was that those in the middle category comprised 77% of voters. The biggest degree of preference for Mamdani compared to Cuomo — 20 points — was among those earning $50-99k. This was also the largest group (27% of voters). The next group, $100-199k, were close behind: 18 points for Mamdani.

It may seem strange to call those earning 50-100k “precariat,” but one must take into account that NYC is a very expensive city. The median rent for two-bedroom apartments in New York City increased 15.8% over the past year and is now $5,500 per month (see Zohran’s Park Slope Populists by John Carney), or $66,000 per year. In other words, you will spend two-thirds of your $100,000 income just to keep a roof over your head. And don’t forget about paying taxes. Not much left for food, entertainment, and forget about vacation travel.

It would be particularly interesting to see how voter preferences varied along both credential and wealth dimensions, but, unfortunately, this publication doesn’t provide such a breakdown.

Still, these numbers provide strong support for the idea that Mamdani’s win was largely propelled by the young credentialed precariat: the youth with college degree, or higher, earning just enough to live on the edge. This is the same point that is made by a several recent articles including Zohran Mamdani and the Revenge of the Struggling Yuppie: When the city becomes a “luxury product,” even the comfortable start to rebel. John Carney’s piece, I linked to above, is particularly good. In fact, I suspect that he read End Times, because it is about immiseration, “the overproduced graduates of our university system,” and, of course, “educated precarity.”

Although NYC is probably the biggest enclave of credentialed precariat, it is not the only one. There are plenty of overproduced elite aspirants in other cities on the East and West Coasts. This means that the mainstream Democrats are now squeezed by populists from both the right and now the left. There is a lot of talk this week about the “blue wave” that will help the Democrats to regain the House in 2026. But those winners, likely, will be a different breed of Democrat.