Peter, the shift to Individual-Instigated violence is the result of two converging forces: Surveillance Darwinism and The Hope Gap.
As you note, the state security apparatus (Palantir/DHS) has mastered Network Analysis. Any collective organization is identified and neutralized before it can act. The System acts as an evolutionary filter: It catches the groups, but it misses the isolated nodes.
The majority of the population is still in Stage 3. They believe the system can be corrected via the 2026 Midterms. They are dormant because they are waiting for the ballot box.
The Individual Actors we see now are the Outliers — those who have realized early that the mechanism of reform is broken. They are the "Early Adopters" of the Collapse.
The real danger isn't the current level of individual violence but what comes in November. If the election is suspended or perceived as stolen, the Hope Gap closes and the majority joins the minority in realizing that Systemic Reform is impossible. At that moment, the violence will likely phase-shift from Individual to Mass, colliding head-on with the Surveillance State. That is the Rupture.
This is interesting, though I’m not convinced the November elections will be the main catalyst for majority population revolt, even if ICE or any other agents interfere, or they’re suspended, or whatever action is taken. It’s still too removed for many Americans to feel what is happening is serious enough to take up arms and be willing to die for change (people will continue to move goalposts until they themselves are affected). This sentiment remains in the radical minority
You are correct about Normalcy Bias — people will move goalposts to avoid danger. But you are missing two critical variables.
1. The 2026 Election is currently the excuse for inaction. The majority remains passive because they believe there is a mechanism for correction. If the Regime executes the Table Flip, they weld that valve shut. This forces the "Normies" to realize that reform is impossible.
2. Revolutions rarely happen bottom-up. They happen when a segment of the ruling class defects and forms a Counter-Elite. If Governor Newsom or Pritzker declares the election illegitimate and activates the National Guard to protect the vote, the dynamic changes. This provides the Permission Structure for the majority to resist the Feds without feeling like criminals.
The Rupture won't be a mob storming the palace; it will be Dual Sovereignty.
Recently, it's been talked about in right-wing circles that current events revolving around ICE, including signal chat coordination of anti-ICE activities such as makeshift checkpoints, civilian plate scan aggregation, & crowd interference, with backing from civilian authorities/institutions, can be seen as an early-stage insurgency.
This was my thought too when the surge in Minneapolis took a deadly turn. Minneapolis pushes back better than other cities did. Maybe it will somehow be the center of an insurgent or revolting faction against the Federal govt in any upcoming 'hot' civil war.
Sadly, the only political leaders who address the principle driver (wealth pump from middle and working class to the rich) are so mired down in/by identarian politics (Sanders, AOC, etc) they have virtually no chance of leading a broad reform movement. Moreover, economic reform focused candidates who begin to gain traction (Talarico) are inevitably challenged or disrupted by well funded, grievance focused candidates (Crocket). Nothing deters our elites, not the 2008 crash, the Pandemic, China's meteoric rise nor Trump's victories. We are headed for a catastrophe ....
Do you think the Democratic leadership is still clinging to the belief that we can return to the normal conventions? I'm not seeing a lot of stirring otherwise, aside from Newson who is adopting the GOP's current tactics. The GOP resisted Trump for awhile, but when they noticed his popular success they got fully on board and developed a clear, organized agenda (though their execution is not necessarily as organized). The Democrats/left still seem so far away from any type of organization and adaptation to the new political normal.
The Democratic machine (I would argue effectively led by Obama) is still quite active. They leverage the corporate funded NGO network, including tactical alignment w extra national groups, to stoke racial grievance and amplify nominal differences between administrations. ICE is an example. How many deportations and deaths in custody occurred under Obama? The Trump admin’s crudeness and trampling of American democratic norms are a huge assist but, on substance, Obama’s immigration enforcement is very similar. There are two key and substantive factors differences - Trump’s indifference to family separations and the defiance of state and local Democratic electeds as opposed to the cooperation Obama received. Add in aggressive activist networks to confront and stress ICE officers and you’re going to serve the anti-Trump media machine w predictable tragedies ala Good & Pretti. Frankly, there’s a lot of Saul Alinsky’s tactics (appropriated for the powerful) on display in how the Democratic elites currently operate. The kind of stuff a young organizer learns working in mid 1980s Chicago
Professor Turchin — your point about quantitative predictions being a harder test for theory is exactly right, and it's what pushed me to build something similar for civilizational norm dynamics.
I've spent the last week building Cerebro — a forecasting engine that applies pendulum physics to four civilizational dimensions (harm tolerance, sexual norms, class permeability, accountability dynamics) across six countries. Validated against 50 years of historical data using walk-forward backtesting: Brier score 0.1875, Expected Calibration Error 0.063 — the ECE places it in the same calibration tier as operational weather forecasting.
The structural-demographic forces you identify — immiseration, elite overproduction, state breakdown — map directly onto what the harm tolerance and class permeability clocks are measuring right now. The US harm clock is at -0.61 with positive acceleration. Class permeability is at -4.10.
Live system at cerebro-deploy.vercel.app. Would value your thoughts on the methodology, particularly the analogue matching approach for saddle point detection.
1. You say that when the wealth pump operates, the masses become impoverished and elites are overproduced. But is there anywhere where the mechanism of elite overproduction is explained in detail? Do elites have many children? Is it that the middle class moves up into the elite? If the masses are becoming poorer, they wouldn’t be able to become elites. How large is this “middle stratum,” really? I read War and Peace and War, Ultrasociety, and End Times, but I couldn’t quite understand this part.
2. In South Korea, people are committing suicide and not having children, and the total population is shrinking. Even if the population declines—especially in the provinces—does competition over Seoul, elite universities, major corporations, and high-level bureaucratic positions actually become more intense? Shouldn’t pressure decrease if the population is falling? If the population isn’t growing but shrinking, why does the pressure persist?
3. Speaking of lawyers, in Korea there is political division and social conflict over expanding medical school quotas. If medical school enrollment increases, will that lead to elite overproduction like what happened with lawyers, intensifying competition? Or will competition ease because the number of available medical positions increases? Fundamentally, if the compensation and social status of doctors do not decline, and if viable middle-status occupations do not emerge where one can live decently without becoming a doctor, does it not matter whether medical school quotas increase or not? Concretely, what would such a fundamental solution look like? What are examples of “middle occupations”?
You may have answered this question in a previous article, but when do you think the US will reach a peak and exit out of it's current disintegrative phase?
The short answer is I don't know. It depends too much on the actions of various leaders and their support groups. See the rolling ball analogy in End Times.
Peter, is the significant increase the cause of the fact that we are currently coincide with the climax of the 200-year secular cycle, which last peaked in the 1860s. Therefor the current unrest maybe feels more systemic and existential than the turmoil of the 1970s. We aren't just seeing a "fathers and sons" disagreement; we are seeing the structural re-negotiation of the American social contract. What do you think?
This is what Dr Turchin has been arguing - that our current disintegrative phase begins roughly in the 70s. We may expect it to last 100ish years, depending on revolutionary events and elite decision making on how to treat the issues. The key is shutting down the wealth pump, which, politically, is way too painful right now for the elites to seriously consider (I.e. the situation isn’t bad enough yet)
That's right, and that's why it is hard (or even impossible) to predict how long the violent phase will last (see also the question by David Isaacs above).
Peter, the shift to Individual-Instigated violence is the result of two converging forces: Surveillance Darwinism and The Hope Gap.
As you note, the state security apparatus (Palantir/DHS) has mastered Network Analysis. Any collective organization is identified and neutralized before it can act. The System acts as an evolutionary filter: It catches the groups, but it misses the isolated nodes.
The majority of the population is still in Stage 3. They believe the system can be corrected via the 2026 Midterms. They are dormant because they are waiting for the ballot box.
The Individual Actors we see now are the Outliers — those who have realized early that the mechanism of reform is broken. They are the "Early Adopters" of the Collapse.
The real danger isn't the current level of individual violence but what comes in November. If the election is suspended or perceived as stolen, the Hope Gap closes and the majority joins the minority in realizing that Systemic Reform is impossible. At that moment, the violence will likely phase-shift from Individual to Mass, colliding head-on with the Surveillance State. That is the Rupture.
can we not have ai commenting in substacks for God's sake
This is interesting, though I’m not convinced the November elections will be the main catalyst for majority population revolt, even if ICE or any other agents interfere, or they’re suspended, or whatever action is taken. It’s still too removed for many Americans to feel what is happening is serious enough to take up arms and be willing to die for change (people will continue to move goalposts until they themselves are affected). This sentiment remains in the radical minority
You are correct about Normalcy Bias — people will move goalposts to avoid danger. But you are missing two critical variables.
1. The 2026 Election is currently the excuse for inaction. The majority remains passive because they believe there is a mechanism for correction. If the Regime executes the Table Flip, they weld that valve shut. This forces the "Normies" to realize that reform is impossible.
2. Revolutions rarely happen bottom-up. They happen when a segment of the ruling class defects and forms a Counter-Elite. If Governor Newsom or Pritzker declares the election illegitimate and activates the National Guard to protect the vote, the dynamic changes. This provides the Permission Structure for the majority to resist the Feds without feeling like criminals.
The Rupture won't be a mob storming the palace; it will be Dual Sovereignty.
I broke down the Game Theory of why this fracture is mathematically inevitable here: https://ariadnecyber.substack.com/p/transmission-log-003-the-midterm
Recently, it's been talked about in right-wing circles that current events revolving around ICE, including signal chat coordination of anti-ICE activities such as makeshift checkpoints, civilian plate scan aggregation, & crowd interference, with backing from civilian authorities/institutions, can be seen as an early-stage insurgency.
https://x.com/Schwalm5132/status/2015470661490057540
https://x.com/Schwalm5132/status/2018862967555547535
https://x.com/JMichaelWaller/status/2018563859586367849
https://x.com/JMichaelWaller/status/2018774676101623981
https://x.com/JMichaelWaller/status/2019139255621042273
If this is accurate, and it seems to be, that's an example of group violence.
Interesting. Thanks for those links.
This was my thought too when the surge in Minneapolis took a deadly turn. Minneapolis pushes back better than other cities did. Maybe it will somehow be the center of an insurgent or revolting faction against the Federal govt in any upcoming 'hot' civil war.
Sadly, the only political leaders who address the principle driver (wealth pump from middle and working class to the rich) are so mired down in/by identarian politics (Sanders, AOC, etc) they have virtually no chance of leading a broad reform movement. Moreover, economic reform focused candidates who begin to gain traction (Talarico) are inevitably challenged or disrupted by well funded, grievance focused candidates (Crocket). Nothing deters our elites, not the 2008 crash, the Pandemic, China's meteoric rise nor Trump's victories. We are headed for a catastrophe ....
Sanders was by far the best shot at it and it just seemed like the MAGA elites were better organized and funded.
Sanders and Warren were both brought down in the primaries by Democratic elites.
Do you think the Democratic leadership is still clinging to the belief that we can return to the normal conventions? I'm not seeing a lot of stirring otherwise, aside from Newson who is adopting the GOP's current tactics. The GOP resisted Trump for awhile, but when they noticed his popular success they got fully on board and developed a clear, organized agenda (though their execution is not necessarily as organized). The Democrats/left still seem so far away from any type of organization and adaptation to the new political normal.
The Democratic machine (I would argue effectively led by Obama) is still quite active. They leverage the corporate funded NGO network, including tactical alignment w extra national groups, to stoke racial grievance and amplify nominal differences between administrations. ICE is an example. How many deportations and deaths in custody occurred under Obama? The Trump admin’s crudeness and trampling of American democratic norms are a huge assist but, on substance, Obama’s immigration enforcement is very similar. There are two key and substantive factors differences - Trump’s indifference to family separations and the defiance of state and local Democratic electeds as opposed to the cooperation Obama received. Add in aggressive activist networks to confront and stress ICE officers and you’re going to serve the anti-Trump media machine w predictable tragedies ala Good & Pretti. Frankly, there’s a lot of Saul Alinsky’s tactics (appropriated for the powerful) on display in how the Democratic elites currently operate. The kind of stuff a young organizer learns working in mid 1980s Chicago
Professor Turchin — your point about quantitative predictions being a harder test for theory is exactly right, and it's what pushed me to build something similar for civilizational norm dynamics.
I've spent the last week building Cerebro — a forecasting engine that applies pendulum physics to four civilizational dimensions (harm tolerance, sexual norms, class permeability, accountability dynamics) across six countries. Validated against 50 years of historical data using walk-forward backtesting: Brier score 0.1875, Expected Calibration Error 0.063 — the ECE places it in the same calibration tier as operational weather forecasting.
The structural-demographic forces you identify — immiseration, elite overproduction, state breakdown — map directly onto what the harm tolerance and class permeability clocks are measuring right now. The US harm clock is at -0.61 with positive acceleration. Class permeability is at -4.10.
Live system at cerebro-deploy.vercel.app. Would value your thoughts on the methodology, particularly the analogue matching approach for saddle point detection.
Dear Professor Turchin,
1. You say that when the wealth pump operates, the masses become impoverished and elites are overproduced. But is there anywhere where the mechanism of elite overproduction is explained in detail? Do elites have many children? Is it that the middle class moves up into the elite? If the masses are becoming poorer, they wouldn’t be able to become elites. How large is this “middle stratum,” really? I read War and Peace and War, Ultrasociety, and End Times, but I couldn’t quite understand this part.
2. In South Korea, people are committing suicide and not having children, and the total population is shrinking. Even if the population declines—especially in the provinces—does competition over Seoul, elite universities, major corporations, and high-level bureaucratic positions actually become more intense? Shouldn’t pressure decrease if the population is falling? If the population isn’t growing but shrinking, why does the pressure persist?
3. Speaking of lawyers, in Korea there is political division and social conflict over expanding medical school quotas. If medical school enrollment increases, will that lead to elite overproduction like what happened with lawyers, intensifying competition? Or will competition ease because the number of available medical positions increases? Fundamentally, if the compensation and social status of doctors do not decline, and if viable middle-status occupations do not emerge where one can live decently without becoming a doctor, does it not matter whether medical school quotas increase or not? Concretely, what would such a fundamental solution look like? What are examples of “middle occupations”?
You may have answered this question in a previous article, but when do you think the US will reach a peak and exit out of it's current disintegrative phase?
The short answer is I don't know. It depends too much on the actions of various leaders and their support groups. See the rolling ball analogy in End Times.
Peter, is the significant increase the cause of the fact that we are currently coincide with the climax of the 200-year secular cycle, which last peaked in the 1860s. Therefor the current unrest maybe feels more systemic and existential than the turmoil of the 1970s. We aren't just seeing a "fathers and sons" disagreement; we are seeing the structural re-negotiation of the American social contract. What do you think?
This is what Dr Turchin has been arguing - that our current disintegrative phase begins roughly in the 70s. We may expect it to last 100ish years, depending on revolutionary events and elite decision making on how to treat the issues. The key is shutting down the wealth pump, which, politically, is way too painful right now for the elites to seriously consider (I.e. the situation isn’t bad enough yet)
That's right, and that's why it is hard (or even impossible) to predict how long the violent phase will last (see also the question by David Isaacs above).