Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin

Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin

Cliodynamics of End Times I

Complex Dynamics of Political Instability

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Peter Turchin
Apr 12, 2026
∙ Paid

I am back from my “tour” — five talks at five universities and tons of discussions with colleagues and friends. It was simultaneously exhausting and energizing. Thankfully, all my spatial transitions went smoothly.

One thing that didn’t go according to the plan was that I didn’t give my talk Cliodynamics of End Times, in which I survey secular cycles of linked political instability and population well-being/immiseration in past societies. Everybody is fixated on today and tomorrow.

It’s understandable — we live in calamitous times. But there is much to learn from past societies, especially, how we could safely navigate through the troubled waters ahead. So, I decided to convert this talk into a series of posts on this Substack.

Notes on the margin: as this series relies heavily on empirical results generated by researchers in my group, I am putting it behind paywall. Remember that every dollar generously contributed by paid subscribers will go to supporting these researchers.

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