Australia has led the world in many domains and has the opportunity to show the world how to make a country with people from more than 100 countries of origin a success.
I selected China for several reasons, (for instance it's long-range considerations in policy-making) but primarily because it is advancing so fast in vital areas of scientific research, specifically in the areas of plastics toxicity - environmental impact of course, but more importantly, on human health, which the US is just noticing, and responding to by blocking research into.
What are we to learn from the analysis? The nature of the country that is about to shape our future? Avoiding ethnocentrism (so avoiding France in my case), avoiding the one country whose language is shared by your readers, also a form of ethnocentrism, but not necessarily the shaper of our future. Note: ethnocentrism is legit, but not the most informing choice for all. Which country will affect our lives, our children lives in the near future? China is possibly the most influential power, growing to challenge the heretofore dominant, yet floundering behemoth. To illustrate again the famous Thucydides trap. The others are too past their prime, Russia, if anything has become China's poodle, so yes, to understand who's going to befall us all, China is probably the best choice. I subscribed to support your endeavour.
I'd be interested to see the United Kingdom, mostly because I'm curious about how 'elite' would be defined in that context. The UK still has vestiges of its pre-modern aristocracy as well as a modern professional managerial class, so would these be considered separate categories or are they broadly the same elite group?
It doesn't seem to be winning in the poll, but France would make an interesting case study. It’s the country of revolutions and currently stands at a crossroads in its history, with widespread impoverishment and years of brewing unrest (Yellow Vests, etc.), along with record levels of unpopularity among its governing elites. Financially, it is nearing bankruptcy—much like Greece was a few years ago. If any country is likely to create chaos in Europe with dramatic consequences for the EU, it’s France. A fascinating case to analyze…
It would be time to publish an update of McEvedy's and Jones' 1970s book about world population history. The book is vastly off the mark about pre-columbian America, and slightly less so about Africa, it seems.
PS. When I think of it, it is slightly ridiculous to treat "China" and "India" as a subject on the same level as, for example, Luxemburg. A new update should at least consider provinces of the superstates, I think. Russia, Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia belong there too.
As a French man, I would be curious about your view about France as it seems there are more and more reasons to think we have entered a disintegrative phase down here...
But, somehow, I guess China, because of its huge impact on global affairs, would be more interesting
I would be more interested to know to what extent the poll responses derive from ethnonarcissism, i.e. the Chinese vote for China, the British vote for Britain, etc.
First of all, I’m looking forward to reading your last book.
The question is difficult to answer because everyone will want his or her own country to be chosen
I’m both French and Russian. So obviously i hesitate between France and Russia, But I think the better country would be Russia because first of all it’s really multinational which makes it a lot more interesting. And Also, I still remember Helene Carrere d'Encausse book which was, I think written in the 70s. And its main thesis was that the Soviet Union would eventually dissolve in which she was right, But the reason she gave was because it was a multinational country with lots of central Asian countries at the time And the difference in birth rates led her to that conclusion. The central Asian countries would eventually take over and this would lead to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, she was in that wrong because it was not the reason the Soviet Union collapsed. But still, her analysis was very interesting.
And in a multinational country, it’s very difficult to create a balance between the main nationality, which is russians still are in the case of of Russia and the over minor nationalities. It can lead to instabilit.
The best example at the moment is, of course Ukraine.
But it could lead to instability in Russia as well, as it did actually in in the 90s with Chechnya.
Yet at the present time, Russia seems to be a very stable country despite its multinationality, what are the factors ?
Also Russia has had a very low birth rate, leading the way, so to speak, compared to other European countries. It hinders it’s economic growth at the moment. And the big dilemma for russian authorities is : how do we allow migration without creating instability.
So it would be really interesting to have a scientific analysis.
Yes, the analysis of USA is in End Times and (more technical) in Ages of Discord. I am planning to update the numbers through 2024 in a future post (or post series) in any case, so I am curious to hear ideas about what next country to look at, other than the USA.
Two days left in the poll!
Australia
Australia has led the world in many domains and has the opportunity to show the world how to make a country with people from more than 100 countries of origin a success.
Details in 'Pluck: Austrlian Manifesto' https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09NDHQYLJ
Interesting idea. Might reveal structural challenges that are not at all obvious
Brazil
I selected China for several reasons, (for instance it's long-range considerations in policy-making) but primarily because it is advancing so fast in vital areas of scientific research, specifically in the areas of plastics toxicity - environmental impact of course, but more importantly, on human health, which the US is just noticing, and responding to by blocking research into.
What are we to learn from the analysis? The nature of the country that is about to shape our future? Avoiding ethnocentrism (so avoiding France in my case), avoiding the one country whose language is shared by your readers, also a form of ethnocentrism, but not necessarily the shaper of our future. Note: ethnocentrism is legit, but not the most informing choice for all. Which country will affect our lives, our children lives in the near future? China is possibly the most influential power, growing to challenge the heretofore dominant, yet floundering behemoth. To illustrate again the famous Thucydides trap. The others are too past their prime, Russia, if anything has become China's poodle, so yes, to understand who's going to befall us all, China is probably the best choice. I subscribed to support your endeavour.
why not Brazil? big, complex, contradictory, changing fast but deeply rooted in the past...
I'd be interested to see the United Kingdom, mostly because I'm curious about how 'elite' would be defined in that context. The UK still has vestiges of its pre-modern aristocracy as well as a modern professional managerial class, so would these be considered separate categories or are they broadly the same elite group?
It doesn't seem to be winning in the poll, but France would make an interesting case study. It’s the country of revolutions and currently stands at a crossroads in its history, with widespread impoverishment and years of brewing unrest (Yellow Vests, etc.), along with record levels of unpopularity among its governing elites. Financially, it is nearing bankruptcy—much like Greece was a few years ago. If any country is likely to create chaos in Europe with dramatic consequences for the EU, it’s France. A fascinating case to analyze…
It would be time to publish an update of McEvedy's and Jones' 1970s book about world population history. The book is vastly off the mark about pre-columbian America, and slightly less so about Africa, it seems.
Perhaps the next project from Seshat?
PS. When I think of it, it is slightly ridiculous to treat "China" and "India" as a subject on the same level as, for example, Luxemburg. A new update should at least consider provinces of the superstates, I think. Russia, Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia belong there too.
As a French man, I would be curious about your view about France as it seems there are more and more reasons to think we have entered a disintegrative phase down here...
But, somehow, I guess China, because of its huge impact on global affairs, would be more interesting
India also
Hi Peter. Why is your Beresta book only available as a paperback? Why no ebook version?
The typesetter has delayed the ebook version (by two years!), but he promised to do it very soon...
Thanks, Peter. I look forward to seeing it.
Zero Marginal Cost Society - Rifkin/Postcapitalism - Paul Mason, basically to make the publishing industry still viable.
I would be more interested to know to what extent the poll responses derive from ethnonarcissism, i.e. the Chinese vote for China, the British vote for Britain, etc.
Russia and China seem to be the only large countries that might teach the U.S. something useful.
Well, I guess Japan could teach us how to decline a little more gracefully.
France and Britain at this point are just schadenfreude, proof that somebody else is doing even worse for those who have given up hope.
First of all, I’m looking forward to reading your last book.
The question is difficult to answer because everyone will want his or her own country to be chosen
I’m both French and Russian. So obviously i hesitate between France and Russia, But I think the better country would be Russia because first of all it’s really multinational which makes it a lot more interesting. And Also, I still remember Helene Carrere d'Encausse book which was, I think written in the 70s. And its main thesis was that the Soviet Union would eventually dissolve in which she was right, But the reason she gave was because it was a multinational country with lots of central Asian countries at the time And the difference in birth rates led her to that conclusion. The central Asian countries would eventually take over and this would lead to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, she was in that wrong because it was not the reason the Soviet Union collapsed. But still, her analysis was very interesting.
And in a multinational country, it’s very difficult to create a balance between the main nationality, which is russians still are in the case of of Russia and the over minor nationalities. It can lead to instabilit.
The best example at the moment is, of course Ukraine.
But it could lead to instability in Russia as well, as it did actually in in the 90s with Chechnya.
Yet at the present time, Russia seems to be a very stable country despite its multinationality, what are the factors ?
Also Russia has had a very low birth rate, leading the way, so to speak, compared to other European countries. It hinders it’s economic growth at the moment. And the big dilemma for russian authorities is : how do we allow migration without creating instability.
So it would be really interesting to have a scientific analysis.
China. But I do not underatand why there isn’t US that will affect all of us even if we are not living there.
Yes, the analysis of USA is in End Times and (more technical) in Ages of Discord. I am planning to update the numbers through 2024 in a future post (or post series) in any case, so I am curious to hear ideas about what next country to look at, other than the USA.
The analysis on the US already exists. Peter has written a brilliant book about it: End Times.
I read the book but pnmmy opinion would be interesting to keep update on the present evolution of US